How Long Can Dan Vladař Keep Carrying the Flyers?
Oct 13, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Flyers center Trevor Zegras (46) and goaltender Dan Vladar (80) celebrate win against the Florida Panthers at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images
Through the first quarter of the Philadelphia Flyers’ 2025-26 season, no one has been a more pleasant surprise than 28-year-old netminder Dan Vladař. The Czech merely native turning the Flyers’ goaltending into anything other than a disaster after consecutive miserable seasons would have been considered an incredible feat. But with a mediocre and fairly untested track record, there was no guarantee he could even do that.
Instead, he’s been even better. Vladař is top 10 in the NHL in save percentage (SV%; .913) and goals-against average (GAA; 2.39). He’s also just outside of there by MoneyPuck’s goals saved above expected (GSAE; 9.9, 12th) and has delivered a quality start (posting a league-average save percentage or better, per Hockey Reference) in 11 of his 14 outings. Even general manager Daniel Brière probably didn’t imagine Vladař playing this way when signing him as a free agent to a two-year, $7.7 million contract on July 1.
He’s a big reason why the Flyers entered Black Friday in a playoff spot for the first time since 2019-20, the last time they qualified for the playoffs. But no one player carried that team the way Vladař has so far this season, especially with Sam Ersson’s underwhelming statistics and the unproven Aleksei Kolosov accounting for the team’s eight non-Vladař starts. That begs the question of how much Vladař has meant to his team so far and how much they can rely on him the rest of the season.
Vladař’s Fantastic Start
Many Flyers fans will quickly say this is the first time the team has had quality goaltending since Carter Hart went on personal leave due to the 2018 Team Canada World Junior trial back in January 2024. But Vladař has actually provided even more value to the Flyers than Hart or most of the team’s netminders in recent memory.
Hart exceeded Vladař’s current .913 SV% in his first two seasons, but never cleared a .907 in his final four seasons with the team, hovering between .905 and .907 in his last three campaigns. By GSAE, his best performance was when he finished plus-10.3 in the 2022-23 season, although he ranked even higher (seventh) in the league rankings in 2019-20, with lower volume due to COVID-19 shortening the season.
Even at his best, Hart was also more of a box of chocolates — you never know what you’re gonna get — than the consistent performer Vladař’s has been so far. Hart only posted a quality start percentage over 50 twice (2019-20 and 2023-24), which were easily the team’s two best full seasons during his tenure. He was by no means fully responsible for the underwhelming team performances between those, just not as much a part of the solution as hoped.
Vladař’s current quality start rate (78.6%) is probably due for regression, as it would be about six percent above last season’s league leader (former Flyer Anthony Stolarz at 72.7%) for netminders with at least 20 games played. The Flyers haven’t had a goalie finish in the top 10 in the category since Steve Mason in 2014-15. So far, Vladař has performed at a high-ceiling, low-floor level, which is exactly the opposite of most expectations.
What If (When?) Regression Hits?
Goaltending is known for its randomness, so a veteran netminder who had an .895 SV% over the past four seasons becoming a star for seven weeks isn’t inherently surprising. While every once in a while, a 2014-15 Devan Dubnyk emerges and legitimately sustains their jump in production. But usually, they come back down to earth, and a team relying on them too much can be in for a rude awakening.
If we erase Vladař’s 10 goals saved above expected, the Flyers would go from a plus-4 goal differential (tied for 11th league-wide) to minus-6 (22nd). If we extrapolate Vladař’s current workload and performance, he’s on pace to start 50 games. Should he continue saving an average of about 0.7 goals above expected per game, that would be about 35.7 GSAE over the full season.
That feels unlikely, given only one goaltender has cleared 30 GSAE in three of the last four full seasons (four did it in 2022-23). That list is exclusively established Vezina Trophy contenders, including only Igor Shesterkin in 2021-22 and Connor Hellebuyck in the last two seasons. Even Vladař’s biggest supporters would acknowledge he’s not on that level, and almost certainly never will be.
Currently, the Flyers are on pace to finish the season with a goal differential around plus-12, which is right in line with playoff bubble status. No team has missed the playoffs with a mark that high since 2021-22. Remove a third of that GSAE forecast for Vladař — and finishing around plus-24 would still be fantastic — and suddenly the Flyers are a break-even team. That type of club can still make the playoffs — two teams did last season with a negative goal differential. But it’s a much dicier proposition.
It’s also dicey to assume Vladař can maintain his current workload. As mentioned above, he’s on pace to start around 50 games, the same number of starts he made the last two seasons
If the Flyers were to cut Vladař’s workload a bit down to a more manageable 40 starts, he would only produce about 28.6 GSAE. That brings Philadelphia’s “best-case scenario” goal differential from plus-12 to around plus-5. That also doesn’t account for any regression that could still hit on Vladař’s game-to-game performance.
Staving Off a Slump
Obviously, the Flyers hope that Vladař can continue to play like a top-tier goaltender throughout the season. That would be the easiest way for the team to remain in the playoff hunt. But for the reasons highlighted above, it’s not a particularly likely one.
What is more likely, or at least more necessary, is the team’s offense improving, particularly at 5-on-5. Only the Seattle Kraken and San Jose Sharks generate fewer expected goals per 60 at 5-on-5 (per Natural Stat Trick) or take fewer shots per game at all situations than the Flyers. Their respectable power play and the re-emergence of Trevor Zegras in particular have kept the offense afloat. But more goal support would be a great way to mask if a few more goals go in against Vladař than they have been.
It would also be great if Ersson could provide quality play when his number is called. His performance this season has been a mixed bag. It’s not as bad as his ugly .850 SV% looks, nor is it as good as his 3-2-2 record suggests (especially given that all three of those wins have come in shootouts). There’s definitely more for the 26-year-old Swede to give, regardless of your thoughts on his performance so far this season. If Vladař can look like a stud for nearly two months, Ersson should be able to pull out of the NHL’s SV% cellar.
Why The Maple Leafs Scratched Max Domi And Will The Forward Return Against The Penguins?
Max Domi faced his first healthy scratch as a member of the Maple Leafs as Coach Craig Berube looks for a reset from the veteran forward.
PITTSBURGH — The Toronto Maple Leafs did not openly announce that Max Domi would be a scratch ahead of their 4-2 loss to the Washington Capitals on Friday. However, when warmups began, the forward wasn’t on the ice; instead, Matias Maccelli—who had been scratched the previous game—took his place.
The Leafs had finally done it: they made Domi a healthy scratch for the first time in his tenure with the club.
While the decision was likely a sensitive matter for the professional, it eventually became evident that Domi would sit based on his performance this season.
“I gotta look at the lineup [and see] what I think is best for tonight. That's part of it, and then I just want to talk to him about getting a reset. We'll see about tomorrow if we get him back in,” Maple Leafs head coach Craig Berube said of the decision.
Domi currently holds a team-worst -13 rating. Berube has stated he wants the player to be more engaged, winning battles and “getting dirty down-low in the offensive zone,” while also citing his inconsistent play.
Based on Berube’s overall assessment of the club’s play against Washington, it appears Domi may re-enter the lineup against the Pittsburgh Penguins on Saturday, potentially replacing Maccelli, whom Berube was less than thrilled with.
“Maccelli did some good things with the puck at times," Berube said. "I thought that other times he didn't get pucks out enough and things like that, but he did make some things happen in the offensive zone on some shifts”.
Domi’s potential return may also hinge on William Nylander’s availability. The star forward was out of the lineup due to illness after missing the previous day's practice for maintenance.
If Nylander is able to shake off his ailment, it may be a tough call to get Domi back in the lineup unless he replaces Dakota Joshua, who also returned after being a healthy scratch for one game.
