Stats show just how reliant Yankees are on Aaron Judge

New York Yankees star and reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge has been a force of nature at the plate pretty much every year since his arrival. 

This season, Judge is hitting .321/.443/.656 with 43 home runs and an OPS of 1.099. He leads all of baseball in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS despite seeing his legendary production dip after suffering an elbow injury that required a brief IL stint.

Judge has long been the driving force behind the Yankees' offensive success. This begs a very interesting question: Where would the Yankees be without him? 

Let’s delve into some relevant Yankees stats by comparing the team's overall numbers this season vs. its numbers without Judge's contributions and the MLB averages for each stat. The stats for the Yankees without Judge's contributions and MLB average for AB/HR are via Stats Perform.

New York's numbers are alarming without Judge 

The one stat where the Yankees truly shine is home runs. Despite having only one hitter besides Judge with 30 home runs — Trent Grisham with 30 — the Yankees would still be first in AB/HR (the average number of at-bats per home run, with lower numbers better). This has boosted their overall power numbers, giving them an above-average slugging percentage and OPS. However, the rest isn’t that good.

Cumulatively, the rest of the offense lags in batting average and on-base percentage, though the drop in OBP without Judge is baffling. This isn’t to say there aren’t any bright spots in either of these stats. Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, Grisham, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Giancarlo Stanton, Ryan McMahon and Jasson Dominguez all have OBPs at or above .328. The real area where the Yankees struggle is in batting average. Judge, Goldschmidt and Bellinger are the only Yankees above average in both metrics.

It seems most of the underperformance came from those no longer on the roster, such as Oswald Peraza and J.C. Escarra, among others. However, the bottom-of-the-order bats, such as Anthony Volpe and Austin Wells, still pose concerns and have weighed on the team’s cumulative stat line. 

But regardless of their current trends in on-base percentage, the goal for each contender is to be well above average in most stats, and aside from power numbers, the Yankees just aren’t. 

Every contender should be a team consisting of solid, reliable contributors. No playoff-bound team should be completely dependent on one player. Without Judge, the Yankees are moderately above average at best, not a great look for a team that is reliant on its potent offense. This, of course, raises obvious questions about their lineup depth in the postseason. 

Judge has posted sub-.200 batting averages in each of his past two postseasons. If this playoff slump continues, this will only add more weight on the other Yankee hitters and could prove detrimental to their World Series aspirations. 

If the Yankees are going to make it to the Fall Classic for the second time in as many years, they will most likely need Judge to perform like his typical MVP self. 

Golden Knights Goalie Gunning for Canada’s Starting Role

Adin Hill is entering the first year of a six-year contract extension with the Vegas Golden Knights. The 29-year-old puck-stopper started a career best 50 games last year for the Knights and emerged as an integral piece of the Vegas organization. He also made his case to be an integral piece of Canada's 2026 Winter Olympics Roster.

The Golden Knights starter served as a backup to St. Louis Blues veteran and Canada starter Jordan Binnington at the 4 Nations Face-Off earlier this year, and the two are leading the race for the top role next winter. Hill faces a tough task trying to usurp the starting job from Binnington, a former Stanley Cup winner, but he's the challenger best equipped to do so.

Give More Than You Get

Hill was solid in nearly every aspect of goaltending last season. According to NHL EDGE, his save percentage in all offensive zone locations was above the league average, watermarked by a nearly perfect .978 save percentage on long-range shots on goal and a .897 save percentage on mid-range shots on goal. Both figures ranked above the 60th percentile of all NHL goalies last season. His goals-against average of 2.47 ranked in the 90th percentile among goalies.

Hill also was routinely making saves on quality scoring chances when the Golden Knights’ defense broke down. MoneyPuck’s model for expected goals calculated 135.53 expected goals were launched on Hill, but he only allowed 121 goals against. That resulted in his goals saved above expected finishing at 14.5, better than the figures posted by notable top netminders like Jake Oettinger of the Dallas Stars and Linus Ullmark of the Ottawa Senators.

Size Advantage

Hill stands at an imposing 6’4” and 215 pounds. He possesses the ideal size for a modern goaltender, and it’s a huge part of how his game succeeds. His long legs allow him to move laterally with ease and less effort, nearly eliminating the bottom half of the net.

It also makes him ideally suited to withstand the rigorous tournament the Olympics will surely be. Teams in the field like Czechia, Finland, Sweden and the United States have the forward depth to keep pushing and get to the high-danger scoring areas. One possible way to combat that is Hill’s large frame.

His size also eliminates angles for shooters. When he pushes off his post, he leaves the shooting forward with no net to see. This is exhibited by his save percentage on unblocked shots. Using MoneyPuck’s data on unblocked shot attempts from last season, Hill posted a low-danger save percentage of .973, a medium-danger save percentage of .888 and a high-danger save percentage of .730.

Why is that impressive? Each statistic exceeded expectations. The same model of expected goals from MoneyPuck predicted an expected high-danger save percentage of .679, an expected medium-danger save percentage of .877 and an expected low-danger save percentage of .971, meaning that Hill performed above expected in all three offensive zones. The only other goalie to start 40 games and also outperform the expected save percentage last year was Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck of the Winnipeg Jets.

One Tweak Could Be the Difference

One issue I’ve noticed while observing Hill is that he can play a bit deep in his crease. It’s likely a byproduct of his hulking size in net, but it can be to his detriment. He can be susceptible to shot deflections because of this, and he also can give up an occasional juicy rebound.

By moving up a bit in his crease, he could eliminate this issue. Already a sturdy goaltender when it comes to fighting for position, taking that little bit more of space could cut down shooting angles even more, reduce the frequency of deflections beating him and rebounds.

If he can do that, Binnington’s starting job is far from a guarantee. The winning experience of the Blues goaltender is a huge advantage, but Hill’s own success in the NHL combined with a career-best season pushing him into 2025-2026 makes him the biggest challenge for Canada’s starting goalie job.

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