Lucas Giolito’s Contract Status Has Become Fascinating to Watch

The Boston Red Sox look like a rejuvenated version of themselves in 2025. After claiming World Series glory in 2018, they made just a single postseason appearance in the next six seasons.

In 2025 though, the Sox find themselves in strong place of contention in the American League, sitting in the second Wild Card spot at 71-59 and 1.5 games up on their bitter rivals in the New York Yankees.

Arguably the most notable reason for this newfound organizational success has been their new look offense framed around the new star in town in Alex Bregman, existing All-Star-caliber names like Jarren Duran and youth movement led by former top prospect Roman Anthony.

However, their pitching can’t be forgotten either. This Boston staff has been a top-half entity in baseball this season in ERA (5th at 3.71), FIP (13th at 4.02), WHIP (T-15th at 1.29) and BAA (T-15th at .241), thanks to All-Star seasons from ace Garrett Crochet and closer Aroldis Chapman, as well as top-tier complementary options like Lucas Giolito.

Giolito has returned to the mound for the the first time since 2023 and has done so in style, making up for what was a pretty uninspiring last impression in the bigs by having one of the better years of his career.

And his current performance in 2025 could have some intriguing implications on his contract status this winter.

What Will the Offseason Look Like for Lucas Giolito?

After signing a short-term two-year deal with a club option ahead of the 2024 season, it seems all but likely the Red Sox had their doubts of whether Giolito wou ld stick in this rotation beyond the length of his contract.

However, the 31-year-old right-hander has become one of Boston’s most reliable arms this season. This has been particularly vital to their success, as last year’s breakout candidate, Tanner Houck, has looked brutal in the limited time he’s been healthy this season and one of their high-upside rotation additions beyond Crochet, Walker Buehler, hasn’t nearly been the pitcher he once was at his peak, as the Red Sox recently moved him to the bullpen due to a his uninspiring 5.40 ERA campaign.

In 111.1 innings across 20 starts so far this season, Giolito has thrown to his best ERA (and first sub-4.00 ERA) in a season since 2021, boasting a 3.72 mark. To pair with that, he holds serviceable mid-rotation caliber clips in FIP (4.37), WHIP (1.27) and BAA (1.27).

This would make his $14 million club option for 2026 a no-brainer for Boston, as he’d provide an effective veteran arm at a very reasonable price to help fu rther usher in their competitive era for additional season.

At the same time, it would give Craig Breslow and Co. the opportunity to see if Giolito is actually reverting back to the high-upside arm he was early in his career when he carried some top prospect pedigree in a low-risk one-year window.

All that to say, if only it were so simple for Boston, because Giolito’s contract is anything but.

You see, despite there currently being a club option for 2026 on Giolito’s contract, it’s a conditional club option.

Due to his recent long-term injury, there’s an inning’s clause in his contract which was placed there to benefit if he were to have a healthy season like he’s having now. This has become more common in injured pitchers’ deal, with Texas’ Nathan Eovaldi having a similar clause in his contract last season.

For Giolito, if he pitches 140.0 or more innings this season, his $14 million club option becomes a $19 million mutual option.

Given how uncommon it is for mutual options to be agreed upon, this would all but mean he would hit the open market this winter. And given the fact he’s just 28.2 innings shy of that mark with a month of play still remaining, there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic that he’ll reach this mark.

If Giolito does end up entering the open market, it seems like a no-brainer for Red Sox to offer him the one-year qualifying offer. If he takes it, it would essentially be just a minor pay raise on the $19 million he would’ve been due on the mutual option (given the QO was $21.05 million last offseason).

If he rejects it and looks for a higher-term deal, the Red Sox gain draft incentive in 2026, similar to what they received with Nick Pivetta after he rejected t he QO this past winter and signed with the San Diego Padres.

Now, there’s always a factor of potential manipulation that needs to be discussed here. The Red Sox could opt to hold Giolito back from the 140.0 if they are truly dead-set on keeping him under their $14 million terms.

However, given the fact they are a squad in the midst of a pair of tightly contested battles for both the AL Wild Card and to a lesser extent the AL East, the odds of them intentionally resting one of their top three starting arms at the moment makes little to no sense from a competitive standpoint.

This makes even more sense given their rotation’s current uncertainty at the bottom half now that Buehler has been shifted into a relief role.

As complicated as his contract situation may be, it’s ac tually a good thing for both parties at the end of the day.

While the Red Sox may hold a higher risk of losing Giolito in free agency, at least it means they would’ve gotten at least 140.0 quality innings of work out of him. And of course, the conditional option gives Giolito an automatic pay raise, with the potential to seek more through the QO or on the open-market.

Time will tell whether the offseason has a new intriguing name set to be added to the fold.

In the meantime though, the Red Sox’s focus will surely be on fighting to make their first postseason in four years.